John Mecklin
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I couldn’t disagree more with Jonathan Thompson’s provincial analysis in his preceding post on presidential primaries.
Yes, a lot of states are trying to schedule their presidential primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, meaning that the Interior West states that have scheduled early primaries probably won’t have anything like a monopoly on the date. But that doesn’t mean the West won’t have a much larger impact on the nominating process than it has in years past. Here’s why:
First, California looks almost certain to move to the Feb. 5 date, and California is part of the West (regardless of the High Country News tendency to treat the Golden State as a delinquent stepchild). That move will let the nation’s largest state and a bunch of other Western states vote just weeks after the Iowa and Nevada caucases and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. States in other regions may well also set Feb. 5 dates, but presidential campaigns will focus on “swing” states and regions, and the West will be one of those regions. The 2006 election results — and their shift of many Inner West states from red to blue, or at least purple — will impel both Republican and Democratic candidates to stump the Western primaries. Nothing will impel candidates from either party to spend a whole lot of time in Alabama, say.
Overall, I agree with the following analysis, from a story in the San Francisco Chronicle:
But Phil Trounstine, who heads the San Jose State University Survey and Policy Research Institute, said an early California primary could deliver some unintended consequences to the 2008 presidential race.
“It may actually increase the importance of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada,” said Trounstine of the four primaries and caucuses scheduled in January 2008 before California’s primary, “because the person who has momentum coming out of those races will have a huge advantage coming into Super Duper Tuesday.”
In post-South Carolina, pre-SDT campaigning, candidates will of course visit other large states that want to move to the Feb. 5 primary date, including Texas, Florida, Illinois and New York. But those candidates will lust after California’s huge slate of nominating delegates, and as they return repeatedly to the left coast, they will stop off repeatedly in the Mountain West, because they will know that, if they win the nomination, the Mountain West will be crucial to their general election strategy.
And I don’t care what Larry Sabato says. The West is where the candidates will go. Not exclusively, but a lot more than they ever did when California was waiting around til useless June to have a primary.